Does Peacetime Military Service Affect Crime?

Date01 July 2017
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12181
Published date01 July 2017
Scand. J. of Economics 119(3), 512–540, 2017
DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12181
Does Peacetime Military Service Affect
Crime?
Karsten Albæk
SFI – The Danish National Centre for Social Research, DK-1052 Copenhagen, Denmark
kal@sfi.dk
Søren Leth-Petersen
University of Copenhagen, DK-1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
soren.leth-petersen@econ.ku.dk
Daniel le Maire
University of Copenhagen, DK-1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
daniel.le.maire@econ.ku.dk
Torben Tranæs
SFI – The Danish National Centre for Social Research, DK-1052 Copenhagen, Denmark
ttr@sfi.dk
Abstract
Draft lottery data combined with Danish longitudinal administrative records show that mili-
tary service can reduce criminal activity for youth offenders. For this group, property crime
is reduced, and our results indicate that the effect is unlikely to be the result of incapacitation
only. We find no effect of military service on violent crime, on educational attainment, or on
employment and earnings, either in the short run or in the long run. These results suggest
that military service does not upgrade productive human capital directly, but rather affects
criminal activity through other channels (e.g., by changing attitudes to criminal activity).
Keywords: Draft lottery; empirical analysis; youth offenders
JEL classification:H56; J24; K42
I. Introduction
Crime is costly for society, and there is ongoing debate about how to reduce
youth crime. The aim of this paper is to measure the effect of peacetime
military service by conscription on the propensity to commit crime during
and after service. Peacetime conscription is widespread. For example, many
NATO countries have peacetime conscription. One of the objectives of con-
scription is to support democracy by improving civil–military relations, and
We are grateful for valuable comments from two referees. D. le Maire is grateful for
financial support from the Danish Social Science Research Council.
CThe editors of The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2016.
K. Albæk et al. 513
by educating youth by offering them a new chance in life, introducing them
to other segments of the population, and informing them about important
civil values (Sørensen, 2000). By teaching obedience and discipline, mili-
tary service might also provide skills that are potentially directly relevant
in the labor market and, thereby, make labor market activity more attrac-
tive relative to criminal activity. Furthermore, the fact that military service
occupies the time of the conscripts while in service can potentially also
contribute to reducing crime. Military service can thus potentially affect
criminal behavior by incapacitation, by affecting productive human capital,
and by socializing conscripts towards being better citizens (i.e., shaping
their attitude towards criminal activity). Military service can, however, also
enhance criminal behavior by delaying labor market entry and education,
thereby worsening labor market opportunities. What is more, training in
the use of weapons might stimulate criminal activity. Finally, conscription
is associated with close and long-term interaction with new peers, and this
can affect criminal behavior both positively and negatively, depending on
the quality of the peers.
The literature about the effect of peacetime military service on crime is
sparse. Galiani et al. (2011) estimate the effect of military service by con-
scription in Argentina, during war as well as peacetime, on the propensity
to commit crime. Identifying the causal effect by exploiting the randomiza-
tion of eligibility inherent in the draft lottery, they find that military service
increases the propensity to develop a subsequent criminal record, and that
service has a detrimental effect on subsequent labor market performance.
Effects are more adverse for individuals who have served during wartime.
A related strand of literature examines the association between war veteran
status and subsequent criminal activity (see MacLean and Elder, 2007, for
an overview). The evidence from this body of literature is mixed and seems
to depend on the context. A number of papers show that military service
can affect other important aspects of people’s lives. Angrist (1990) exploited
the Vietnam War draft lottery to show that Vietnam veterans earned less
than otherwise similar men who were not drafted. Follow-up studies have
found earnings effects to be short-lived (Angrist and Chen, 2011; Angrist
et al., 2011), although the latter study found that the GI Bill generated
schooling gains for veterans. Angrist (1998) shows evidence that voluntary
military service can have positive effects on post-service employment. Card
and Cardoso (2012) show evidence that peacetime conscription increases
the earnings of low-skilled Portuguese men.
A range of studies have tried to quantify the effect of various policy ini-
tiatives on reducing crime. Some policy measures have obvious short-lived
effects. For example, imprisonment takes the criminal out of criminal ac-
tivity (at least outside the prison) and increased police effort also seems to
lower criminal activity (Chalfin and McCrary, 2013). Much of the previous
CThe editors of The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2016.

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